How I think about markets
The frame for everything I'll post here: a continuous score, a measured edge, and a position sized to how wrong I might be. Opinions, not advice.
- #Framework
- #Process
This is where I’ll share market views — equities, crypto, and the prediction markets I actually trade. Before any of that, the frame, so every later post can be read against it.
A score, an edge, a size
I keep ending up at the same shape: a continuous score, a position, and a measured edge. The score is a probability or an expected value I can defend. The edge is the gap between that score and the price. The size is set by how wrong the score might be — half-Kelly with explicit confidence intervals, and only when my posterior disagrees with the market by more than the noise of the posterior itself.
What you’ll see on each take
- A stance — bullish, bearish, or neutral — as a badge, so you know the direction at a glance.
- The tickers / assets it’s about.
- The thesis, and just as important, what would change my mind. A view without a kill-switch is just a feeling.
What this is not
It’s not a signal service and it’s not advice. I’m writing these to think in public and to keep an honest record — the market is the cleanest place to test forecasting because the loss function doesn’t care what I wanted to be true. If a call ages badly, it stays up.
Opinions only. Size your own risk.