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— MARKETS · POSITIONS · THESES

Investing.

Where I share my market views — equities, crypto, and prediction markets. Each piece is a thesis with the reasoning attached: what I think, why, and how confident I am. Opinions, not investment advice.

NEUTRAL $COHR $LITE · · ~12 min · Equity / AI / Optics

Coherent (COHR): an AI-optics winner with a diamond-cooling option — priced, not cheap

COHR is being re-rated as an AI optical-interconnect winner with an NVIDIA anchor — the diamond/synthetic-diamond cooling story is a 2027+ option, not today's profit engine. I'd build 335–355, not chase 380+. vs LITE inside. Opinions, not advice.

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BEARISH $CAD $USDCAD $WTI · · ~14 min · Macro / Trade / USMCA

USMCA 2026: The Real Risk Is the Loonie, Not a Breakup

Mexico extended its anti-dumping duties on US carbon steel pipe for another five years (25.43% / 6.77% / 4.04%). On its own it's small-category protection — but read into the window before the 2026 USMCA/CUSMA first review, it's an early tell that none of the three members plans to soften unilaterally. My core call: the July 1 trilateral meeting is most likely not 'sign-or-die' but a grey 'messy non-renewal, annual review' state; the real risk isn't the deal vanishing that day — it's Canadian capex delayed, a CAD risk premium, and supply-chain compliance cost being lifted for the long run. USD/CAD biased higher. Opinion, not investment advice.

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NEUTRAL $SPX $NDX $USDJPY $NVDA · · ~16 min · Macro / Fed / Warsh

Warsh's First FOMC: Not a Hold, a Reaction-Function Reset

The FOMC held 12–0 at 3.50%–3.75%, but the real signal isn't the hold — it's Warsh pulling his own dot, deleting forward guidance, and launching five framework task forces. Read with Japan's hike to 1.0%, a yen stuck near 160, and AI capex now >50% of the S&P 500, the regime becomes: high nominal growth, high policy uncertainty, high AI capex. Not an AI bust — a fragile bull. Watch USD/JPY 155. Opinion, not investment advice.

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NEUTRAL $NKY $USDJPY $JGB $NDX · · ~14 min · Macro / BOJ / Yen Carry

The BOJ Hike, US Liquidity, and Japan's Rally

The BOJ lifts its rate to 1.00% (a post-1995 high, on a 7–1 vote) and says it will stop tapering bond purchases from April 2027; the same day the Nikkei pushes toward/through 70,000. Two questions: does this drain US liquidity and crush US stocks, and why are Japanese stocks rising instead? The core is one line — the market is buying 'not more hawkish,' not the hike itself. Risk-on near term, more fragile the higher it goes. Opinion, not investment advice.

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NEUTRAL $SPCX · · ~14 min · IPO / SpaceX / Macro

SpaceX goes public: tradeable, not yet investable

The IPO prices a $1.77T space-AI hyperscaler, not Starlink cash flow. I'd take a $135 allocation as an event trade — and not chase above $160. Base case: pop, then fade. Opinions, not advice.

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NEUTRAL · · 3 min · Framework / Process

How I think about markets

The frame for everything I'll post here: a continuous score, a measured edge, and a position sized to how wrong I might be. Opinions, not advice.

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